The Rate Liftoff: Why Markets Don't Like it

Posted by: Deepa Vasudevan on Sat, Oct 11th, 2014

As the US Fed ends its QE program, a phase of easy money is about to end. Nervousness about the expected US rate tightening has led to widespread volatility and sell offs in equity markets. In this context, the recent Fed stance of holding rates has bought a temporary calm. Read more

The Much Discussed Slowdown in Bank Credit

Posted by: Deepa Vasudevan on Wed, Oct 8th, 2014

The sudden decline in bank credit growth has led to a view that investment will pick up only if interest rates are cut to stimulate the demand for bank loans. This blog dissects the possible reasons for the credit slowdown, ad explores the link between credit and growth. Read more

The Importance of the September 2014 Monetary Policy

Posted by: Deepa Vasudevan on Wed, Oct 1st, 2014

The September 2014 monetary policy clearly signals that RBI will focus on controlling inflation. Its willingness and ability to reduce interest rates will depend on government actions towards supply side reforms, fiscal consolidation and measures to revive the investment cycle. Read more

The Statistical Truths in GDP growth

Posted by: Deepa Vasudevan on Fri, Sep 12th, 2014

Real GDP grew by 5.7% during the quarter April-June 2014, at the highest quarterly growth rate since 2012. However, as the economy emerges from several quarters of poor growth, it is important to recognize the impact of a low base in giving a statistical boost to GDP growth. Read more

Can Bank Credit Provide Enough Impulse to Investment?

Posted by: Deepa Vasudevan on Wed, Sep 3rd, 2014

The change in the flow of bank credit, or credit impulse, is better able to predict recoveries from a recession as compared to other credit variables. Data shows that though bank credit growth is poor, the credit impulse is rising. This suggests a strong possibility of a revival in investment. Read more